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☆ China’s Slumping Economy: What the Latest Numbers Are Signaling
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-15 | by ( Keith Bradsher | More About Keith Bradsher | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

China’s trains, planes, stores and beaches were a little fuller last month than a year ago, and the pace of activity picked up at factories, particularly those making mobile phones and semiconductors. A batch of numbers released on Friday by China’s National Bureau of Statistics showed a modest improvement in the country’s overall retail sales and industrial production during August. A series of small steps taken by the government over the summer, including two rounds of interest rate cuts, seems to be yielding a slightly better-than-expected improvement in the country’s economy. “The national economy has accelerated its recovery, production and supply have increased steadily, market demand has gradually improved,” Fu Linghui, China’s director of national economic statistics, said at a news conference. “Some may be of the view that China’s economy has already bottomed out, but we remain cautious,” said a research note from Nomura, a Japanese bank.

Persons: ” Fu Linghui, ”, Nomura Organizations: China’s National Bureau, Statistics

☆ China’s retail sales surprise with faster growth, up 4.6% in August
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-15 | by ( Evelyn Cheng | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

BEIJING — China's retail sales and industrial production picked up pace in August with better-than-expected growth, according to National Bureau of Statistics data released Friday. Retail sales grew by 4.6% in August from a year ago, beating expectations for 3% growth forecast by a Reuters poll. The increase was also faster than the 2.5% year-on-year pace in July. Industrial production grew by 4.5% in August from a year ago, better than the 3.9% forecast and faster than the 3.7% increase reported for July. That missed expectations for a 3.3% increase and was slower than the 3.4% pace reported as of July.

Persons: Fu Linghui Organizations: National Bureau, Statistics Locations: Chongqing, China, BEIJING

Construction workers take a nap in front of a wall of a construction site during their lunch break in Beijing, China, May 5, 2015. REUTERS/Kim Kyung-Hoon /File PhotoAug 15 (Reuters) - China suspended publication of its youth jobless data on Tuesday, saying it needed to review the methodology behind the closely watched benchmark, which has hit record highs in one of many warning signs for the world's second-largest economy. Fu Linghui, a spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), said the release of data would be suspended while authorities look to "optimise" collection methods. "The declining availability of macro data may further weaken global investors' confidence in China," said Ting Lu, chief China economist at Nomura, adding that youth unemployment was expected to have risen in July. The most recent NBS data on youth unemployment, published last month, showed the jobless rate jumping to a record high of 21.3% in June.

Persons: Kim Kyung, Fu Linghui, Fu, Ting Lu, Tuesday's, Laurie Chen, Albee Zhang, Muralikumar Anantharaman, Sam Holmes, Gerry Doyle Organizations: REUTERS, National Bureau of Statistics, Nomura, China News Service, Thomson Locations: Beijing, China, Weibo

Asian stocks were down and the dollar held firm after the weak Chinese data and latest policy easing measures. Investment in the property sector tumbled 8.5% year-on-year in January-July, after shrinking 7.9% in January-June, extending its fall for the 17th consecutive month. Demand for the property sector, once a pillar of economic growth, has remained weak in recent weeks. The nationwide survey-based jobless rate climbed slightly to 5.3% from 5.2% in June. After the youth jobless rate rose to record high of 21.3% in June, NBS spokesperson Fu Linghui said at Tuesday's press conference the bureau will suspend publishing the survey-based jobless rate for the 16-24 years old from August, adding China will further improve its employment statistics.

Persons: Julian Evans, Pritchard, Bruce Pang, Jones Lang Lasalle, Fu Linghui, Albee Zhang, Liangping Gao, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: National Bureau of Statistics, Retail, Capital Economics, Jones, Investment, Communist Party, NBS, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, China

☆ China stats bureau sees no deflation risks, plays down property woes
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

A customer shops for vegetables at a wet market in Beijing, China August 10, 2023. REUTERS/Yew Lun TianBEIJING, Aug 15 (Reuters) - There is no deflation in China and there will be no deflation in the future, a spokesman of China's statistics bureau said on Tuesday. China's economic recovery faces challenges, National Bureau of Statistics spokesperson Fu Linghui told a press conference in Beijing. Still, the bureau expects a decline in producer price index to moderate further, according to Fu. Fu also said that risks for property developers could be gradually resolved due to policy optimisation.

Persons: Lun Tian, Fu Linghui, Fu, Muralikumar Organizations: REUTERS, National Bureau of Statistics, Beijing, Thomson Locations: Beijing, China, Lun Tian BEIJING

☆ China Suspends Report on Youth Unemployment, Which Was at a Record High
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-15 | by ( Claire Fu | More About Claire Fu | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

The Chinese government, facing an expected seventh consecutive monthly increase in youth unemployment, said Tuesday that it had instead suspended release of the information. The unemployment rate among 16- to 24-year-olds in urban areas hit 21.3 percent, a record, in June and has risen every month this year. It was widely forecast by economists to have climbed further last month. Fu Linghui, a spokesman of the National Bureau of Statistics, said at a news briefing that the government would stop making public employment information “for youth and other age groups.” He said the surveys that government researchers use to collect the data “need to be further improved and optimized.”China’s youth unemployment rate has doubled in the last four years, a period of economic volatility induced by the “zero Covid” measures imposed by Beijing that left companies wary of hiring, interrupted education for many students, and made it hard to get the internships that had often led to job offers.

Persons: Fu Linghui, ” Organizations: National Bureau of Statistics Locations: Beijing

☆ China reports second-quarter GDP miss, another record high in youth unemployment
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-17 | by ( Evelyn Cheng | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

BEIJING — China said Monday that second-quarter gross domestic product grew by 6.3% from a year ago, missing expectations. The unemployment rate among young people ages 16 to 24 was 21.3% in June, a new record. The 6.3% GDP print for the second quarter marked a 0.8% pace of growth from the first quarter, slower than the 2.2% quarter-on-quarter pace recorded in the first three months of the year. Analysts polled by Reuters had predicted a 7.3% increase in the second quarter GDP. When asked about the outlook for the second half, spokesperson Fu said he expected real estate investment would remain low for the near future.

Persons: Fu Linghui, Fu Organizations: Railway, Reuters, National Bureau of Statistics, CNBC, Information, Investment Locations: Guangzhou, BEIJING — China, China, Beijing

☆ China’s Rebound Falters, Tripped Up by Debt and Weak Exports
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-16 | by ( Keith Bradsher | More About Keith Bradsher | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +5 min

China’s economy is flashing many warning signs. Weak spending is pushing China close to a dangerous trend known as deflation: Consumer prices are flat, and wholesale prices paid by companies are actually falling. “It’s not a strong recovery; the economy is quite weak,” said Wang Dan, the chief economist at Hang Seng Bank China. Some companies are also moving supply chains out of China, which will have a longer-lasting effect on exports, Mr. Fattal said. But a huge accumulation of debt, particularly at the level of local governments, has made that hard to do.

Persons: ”, Diana Choyleva, “ It’s, Wang Dan, Richard Fattal, Fattal, Lou Jiwei, Cui Dongshu, Fu Linghui, Lou, Ms, Wang, Li You Organizations: Enodo, National Bureau, Statistics, Investment, Hang Seng Bank China, National Bureau of Statistics, Administration, Customs, Companies, Workers, China, China Passenger Car Association Locations: Shanghai, London, China, Baoding, United States, Europe

☆ China cuts loan prime rate as economic recovery fizzles out
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-20 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

The rate cuts come as Wall Street banks, including Goldman Sachs, slash their forecasts for China’s economy. The People’s Bank of China on Tuesday trimmed its one-year loan prime rate (LPR) by 10 basis points from 3.65% to 3.55%, and reduced the five-year rate by the same margin to 4.2%. This is the first time the PBOC has cut both LPR rates since August 2022, when renewed Covid lockdowns and a deepening property downturn were pummeling the economy. “The 10 bps rate cut[s] are unlikely to stimulate business confidence and housing demand,” said Ken Cheung, chief Asian foreign exchange strategist at Mizuho Bank. Hong Kong and mainland Chinese stocks slid after Tuesday’s rate cuts.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Covid, ”, Ken Cheung, “, ” Goldman Sachs, Fu Linghui Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, People’s Bank of China, Mizuho Bank, Shanghai, National Bureau, Statistics, NBS Locations: Hong Kong, Beijing

CNN —For nearly 13 million high school students across China, Wednesday marks a day that could make or break their plans for college and the increasingly competitive job market beyond. A high score in the two-day “gaokao” college entrance exam is the only way to get into the country’s top universities, and most Chinese students only get one shot at the grueling test, unlike US students who can take the SAT several times. A user on Douyin, China’s version of TikTok, recalled taking the gaokao in 2000 when there were only about 3.75 million other test takers. The urban unemployment rate for 16- to 24-year-olds hit a record high of 20.4% in April, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics. And the rate could increase further, as a record 11.6 million college students are set to graduate this year.

Persons: gaokao, ”, TikTok, Fu Linghui, Xi Jinping’s Organizations: CNN, Getty, Authorities, Times, National Bureau of Statistics, NBS Locations: China, Shenyang, honking

☆ China says drafting plans to boost recovery, expansion of consumption
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

BEIJING, April 19 (Reuters) - China is formulating plans to boost the recovery and expansion of consumption, the state planner's spokesperson Meng Wei said on Wednesday, signaling officials are worried about weak demand despite a sharp rebound in retail sales. The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) pledged to promote a sustained recovery in consumption. "Currently, we are working on drafting documents on the recovery and expansion of consumption, mainly focusing on key areas such as stabilising big-ticket consumption, enhancing service consumption and expanding rural consumption," said Meng. Meng, at a news conference, also mentioned stabilising of automobile consumption, which was a "big part" of supporting consumption, by promoting new energy vehicles to rural areas. "The international environment is still complex and ever-changing, constraints from insufficient domestic demand are obvious and the foundation for economic recovery is not solid," said statistics bureau spokesperson Fu Linghui on Tuesday.

GDP growth last year slumped to one of its worst in nearly half a century due to COVID restrictions. "The strong export growth in March also likely helped to boost GDP growth in Q1." China's rebound has so far remained uneven as its investment-fuelled growth of the past to one now reliant on consumption faces challenges. Consumption, services and infrastructure spending have perked up but factory output has lagged amid weak global growth, while slowing prices and surging bank savings are raising doubts about demand. The government has set a modest GDP growth target of around 5% for this year, after badly missing the 2022 goal.

☆ China GDP: Economy shakes off Covid legacy to grow 4.5% in Q1
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-17 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

But private investment barely budged and youth unemployment surged to the second highest level on record, indicating the country’s private sector employers are still wary about longer term prospects. Retail sales jumped 10.6% in March from a year earlier, the highest level of growth since June 2021. The country’s GDP will grow 5.2% this year and 5.1% in 2024, it predicted. If adjustments are made to account for the impact of delayed economic activity, GDP growth in the first quarter could have been just 2.6%, he said. For example, private investment was extremely weak.

☆ China's economic activity uneven in Jan-Feb after COVID reopening
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( Ellen Zhang | Kevin Yao | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

REUTERS/Tingshu WangProperty investment in the January-February period fell again as home buyers and developers remained cautious despite a slew of supportive government policies. The reading accelerated from a 1.3% annual rise in December. The mixed data portrayed an uneven recovery in economic activity following China’s abrupt abandonment late last year of its three-year-long campaign to control COVID-19. Within January-February fixed-asset investment, infrastructure investment surged 9.0% from a year before. China has set a modest annual growth target of around 5% this year after significantly missing its target for 2022 and recording one of its worst showings in nearly half a century.

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